Strategic Case Analysis
160
As shown in the figure on the previous page, once Linux takes
off, it pulls ahead by leaps and bounds over Solaris in terms of
technology adoption. When this happens, it becomes clear
that Solaris has indeed stagnated. However, there will come a
time when Linux itself will mature and reach the head of its
own S-curve, at which point it will stagnate, and some other
operating system will disrupt it.
This encompassing Unix S-curve shows how Unix as a
technology would behave in terms of technology adoption as
a function of time. As illustrated, even though Linux is
disrupting Solaris as the newer Unix O/S, Unix as an
operating system technology is still taking off.
In the above application of S-curves as a strategy framework,
the unit of analysis was a kind of technology, namely,
operating systems (O/S). However, S-curves can be applied to
items more granular than a broad technology, i.e., products.
When S-curves are applied as a product strategy framework,
complete product life cycles can be mapped out as S-curves.
Similarly, S-curves can be applied to a much broader unit of
analysis, i.e., a complete industry.
For example, currently the traditional media industry is under
attack from the Internet. As people spend more and more time
on the Internet, they have less and less time to read traditional
print media, or to watch the TV. Probably the only traditional
media which will survive the Internet onslaught is the radio,
since people listen to it in their cars, and it is somewhat
inconvenient to browse the Internet while driving. So, in this
scenario, to brainstorm the disruptions in the media industry,
the lower S-curve can pertain to traditional media, and the
upper S-curve will be a portrayal of the Internet.
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